Can the Housing Market Withstand the War?
Home sales are holding strong — pending contracts hit 86,000 this week, up 3.8% from last year. But with mortgage rates back above 6.5% amid global economic pressures, the next few weeks will show how buyers respond in today’s evolving market.
📈 Rising Rates and Global Pressure The market is reacting to broader economic forces: oil prices are up 50% since the war began, bond markets are pricing in inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 30 basis points, and mortgage rates have climbed 53 basis points in just 3.5 weeks. Even so, rates near 6.5% remain at the low end of the four-year range and close to Compass’s forecast of 6.4% for the year.
🏘️ Inventory Is Tightening Supply continues to contract across key markets:
- +5.3% YoY overall homes on the market
- -3% YoY in new listings
- -9% YoY in Florida
- +5% YoY in Austin (down from earlier highs)
Inventory growth is slowing, and in some areas, supply is now tightening, creating a unique dynamic for buyers and sellers.
💰 Price Trends Are Flattening
- $213 list price per sq. ft. nationally (-2.1% YoY)
- Sales prices still +1–2% YoY
Pricing is essentially flat, with expectations that the summer peak may come in below 2024 levels. Price reductions are at 33.4% of active listings, a key metric to watch if mortgage rates continue to rise.
🌱 Spring Market — Holding for Now Spring is here, and the market is moving — but the recent jump in rates could test buyer demand. The next few weeks will reveal how resilient the market really is.
📺 Watch the full market update for deeper insights:
💡 Thinking about buying, selling, or investing in real estate?
I can help you navigate today’s market with personalized insights and strategy. Connect with me, Tyler Brown, Newport Beach real estate agent, to make informed decisions in this evolving housing market.
