🏡 Buyer Demand Slips Below Last Year — What It Means for Today’s Housing Market
For the first time since early this year, home buyer demand has dipped below last year’s pace — a notable shift as we move into the peak spring season.
This week, we recorded 85,000 newly pending home sales, down 2.6% compared to the same week in 2025. Up until now, sales had been slightly outperforming last year, but that trend has reversed — and the timing aligns closely with mortgage rates rising roughly 50 basis points since the start of March.
📉 Demand Is Showing Early Signs of Pressure
We’re also seeing fewer immediate sales (homes going under contract in under a week), and price reductions have climbed to 34.5% of all active listings, up 40 basis points from last week.
This is one of the clearest signals that the recent rate spike is impacting buyer behavior in real time.
🏘️ Supply Remains Constrained
On the supply side, the story hasn’t changed much:
- 941,000 homes on the market nationally
- +4% year-over-year inventory growth (vs. +36% at this time last year)
- New listings down 3% compared to last year
Inventory growth is slowing significantly. If this trend continues, we could end the year with less inventory than 2025 — which challenges the common expectation that buyers will see both lower rates and more options.
💼 Labor Market: Stable, But Not Driving Growth
The broader economy is sending mixed signals. Unemployment declined to 4.3% in March, and initial jobless claims remain low — so the idea of a housing slowdown driven by job losses isn’t supported right now.
However, hiring rates have dropped to new lows, which matters. Relocation for work is a major driver of home purchases, and a slower hiring environment can directly impact sales activity.
💰 Home Prices Remain Soft
- Median home price: $440,000
- ~2% below last year
- Price per square foot: -2.2% year-over-year
Even broader measures like the Case-Shiller Index are only slightly above last year’s levels. Across the board, there’s no meaningful upward price pressure in the data right now.
🌱 Entering Peak Season with Less Momentum
As we head into the busiest time of year for real estate, the market is doing so with less momentum than it had just a few months ago.
The key question now:Will demand stabilize — or continue to soften under current rate conditions?
📺 Watch the full market update here for a deeper breakdown:
What are you seeing in your local market?
I’m always interested to hear different perspectives.
If you’re navigating today’s market and want a clear strategy, I can help. Connect with me, Tyler Brown & Associates, for personalized insights on buying, selling, or investing in this evolving housing market.
